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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, December 28, 2010
This currency pair is now moving within wave C of daily degree (the wave and expansions off A-B waves are colored royal blue in the chart). Within this wave C there are five subwaves - colored magenta. And subwave 5 is still developing. Within subwave 5 there are still smaller waves A-B-C (colored yellow in the chart) with subwave C still developing.
The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 0.9539-1.0031-0.9833 (waves A-B of larger degree, daily), 0.9833-0.9930-0.9843 (waves 1-2), 0.9843-1.0069-0.9990 (waves 3-4), and 0.9990-1.0060-1.0013 (subwaves A-B within wave 5).
Resistances:
- 1.0094 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0126-30-37 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP) and two contracted objective points (COP)
If the price reverses down the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 1.0013 - this wave is not developed yet.
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the prevailing trend is up it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero level to consider long positions. The zero level is 15 pips away from the current price, the oversold area is 30-35 pips away from the current price which may correspond to a Fib support only on smaller timeframes, so stand aside in the meantime.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Senior Member
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, December 28, 2010
GBP/JPY has developed five waves of medium term downtrend (colored red in the chart) from 131.61 to 127.34. These 5 waves are the subwaves of wave C of larger degree (colored magenta in the chart). Current wave up is potential wave A in A-B-C cycle that is the retracement to 131.61-127.34. Now the targets above the current price level are Fibonacci retracements of 131.61-127.34 and 128.54-127.34.
Resistances:
- 128.08 = .618 retracement
- 128.97 = .382 ret
- 129.48 = .50 ret
- 129.98 = .618 ret
If the price resumes the downtrend and breaks below 127.34 the nearest supports will be Fibonacci expansions off 135.03-126.43-134.19, 134.19-129.33-133.03, 133.03-130.75-131.61 (waves 1-2), 131.61-127.43-128.54 (waves 3-4).
Supports:
- 125.96 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 125.64-59 = confluence area of super expanded objective point (SXOP) and objective point (OP)
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the pair is now trading in a flat but the prevailing trend is down it's preferable to use overbought readings of the Detrended Oscillator. The overbought area is 20-30 pips away from the current price which corresponds to 128.08 resistance.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Senior Member
EUR/GBP candlestick analysis (long term view)
The EUR/GBP currency pair started this week on the upside.
Nevertheless, as mentioned before, successful breakout of the support level near 0.8430-0.8450 targeted the pair to 0.8143.
The view on the currency pair remains bearish as earlier the EUR/GBP has formed a combination of Bearish Engulfing candlesticks in a downward trend.
In addition, the support level breakthrough at 0.8535 proves that this point of view is correct. Now the pair is likely to decline to 0.7750-0.7700.
The downside movement is supported by the fact that this combination of candlesticks was formed near the upper line of the downward trend where the bulls could not solidify, the bears started increasing their influence and the rollback took place.
It is worth pointing out that short positions should be closed in case of breakthrough of Fibonacci correction level 50.0, as it will mean that the downtrend is overcome and the currency pair will target to 0.98.
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Senior Member
Technical analysis of the USD/CAD for December 28, 2010
Support levels: 1.0000, 0.9980, 0.9930
Resistance levels: 1.0212, 1.0290, 1.0380
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is moving further to the parity level after it failed to break through the resistance level of 1.0212. However, the pair is expected to bounce up near strong support level of 1.0000 that is also a bottom of a broader range.
Nevertheless, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0290 resistance level, this will lead to upside motion with the target to 1.0380. Further breakout of 1.0380 will denote the end of a rollback and that further advance should be expected. Moreover, the breakthrough of 1.0380 will point to the formation of “Triple Bottom”.
Nevertheless, the breakout of the support level near 0.9980-1.0000 will allow the pair to reach 0.9930.
In the midterm the currency pair will probably remain within the limits of its wide range between 1.0000 and 1.0750-1.0850. Nonetheless, in case the reversal takes place, then the breakout of 1.0680 will confirm that the consolidation ended and that the downtrend with 1.3063 is broken through. In this case it is expected that the USD/CAD will move upside to the Fibonacci correction level 38.2 from 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 with the next target to the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 at 1.1866.
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Senior Member
Candlestick analysis of the GBP/USD for December 28, 2010
On a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD is bouncing off after a drop to 1.5355. Nevertheless, the viewpoint on this pair is still bearish as the downtrend still remains. Earlier the pair dropped sharply after it failed to break out the resistance level of 1.5900.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD formed the combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing which indicates the decline, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed after the currency pair could not break through the resistance level near 1.6085-1.6096, which means that the bulls did not solidify here. Further the bears started increasing their influence.
A breakthrough of 1.5841 means that this point of view is correct.
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Senior Member
Fundamental Analysis, December 27, 2010
Asian stock markets opened the new trading week on a positive note due to a rise in interest rates in China over the weekend. As such, the Tokyo stock exchange rose by 0.8%, the Seoul exchange rose by 0.1%, Singapore climbed by 0.9%, Taiwan ascended by 0.5%, the Shanghai exchange rose by 0.7%, while the stock exchanges of Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong and the Philippines were closed for Christmas.
As we mentioned, this Saturday the Chinese central bank announced that it would raise the interest rate for the second time running, after inflation in the country had risen to the second highest level in the last two years, due to predictions by the government that inflation would accelerate in the first half of 2011. The central bank raised the interest rate by 0.25% to 5.81% after having raised it for the first time in almost three years on October 19th.
In the American macroeconomic sphere, last Thursday the Department of Commerce announced that the volume of orders on non-perishable goods in the United States declined in November by 1.3% as compared to economists' predictions of a more moderate 0.5% decline. Furthermore, the Department stated that the amount of new unemployment claims in the United States had declined by 3,000 to a level of 420 thousand, as predicted by economists. Furthermore, the volume of new house sales in the United States had expanded last months by 5.5% as compared to October, to an annualized rate of 290 thousand homes. The rise was more moderate than predicted by economists, who predicted annualized rate of 300 thousand homes. The macroeconomic schedule for this week will be sparse due to Christmas celebrations around the globe.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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GBP/USD. Opportunities to buy, For December 27, 2010 (Daily Strategy)
GBP/USD
The pound continues showing weakness against the dollar, though in the last two trading days the pair appears to have stabilized after running up against the powerful support level around 1.5400, stemming from the combination of the pair's 200-day moving average and the Fibonacci level, which, between them, have succeeded in braking the sharp decline that had been typical of the couple during the last week and a half.
In most cases, a 200-day moving average forms a bottom when a pair is not able to breach it. Adding the relatively positive sentiment on the financial market and the strong positive deviation of the MACD indicator forms a buy opportunity on the pair on a relatively low price due to the positive market atmosphere. It is possible to enter a buy deal on the present prices with two exit goals, the first at 1.5560 and the second at 1.5780 United States dollars for one British pound.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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GBP/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For December 27, 2010
_____WEEKLY______
Weekly - R3 = 1.5783
Weekly - R2 = 1.5680
Weekly - R1 = 1.5562
Weekly Pivot = 1.5459
Weekly - S1 = 1.5341
Weekly - S2 = 1.5238
Weekly - S3 = 1.5120
_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.6895
Monthly - R2 = 1.6597
Monthly - R1 = 1.6079
Monthly Pivot = 1.5781
Monthly - S1 = 1.5263
Monthly - S2 = 1.4965
Monthly - S3 = 1.4447
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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The GBP/USD wave analysis for December 27, 2010
Moving in a very narrow price corridor the GBP/USD has closed near the upper line of the local downtrend that has been developing since December 15. Thus, the pair has probably continued the formation of inner wave structure of the 2nd in the 3rd (future C). The option of pound further downside movement could be preemptive if it was not for the MACD divergence that give advantage to the British currency in the medium term.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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The EUR/USD wave analysis for December 27, 2010
On the edge of the holidays the EUR/USD has been almost flat and the price has been moving along the line near the level of the 31 figure. At the same time the euro is most likely to be in the limits of the 2nd wave in the 3rd (5th), that has been forming in the new section of the downtrend developing after December 14th. However, it is quite difficult to estimate further market behavior. Although, the dollar has certain advantage in the current situation.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
Senior Member
EUR/GBP, Downward Continuation December 29, 2010 (Daily Strategy)
EUR/GBP
The Euro – British Pound pair had risen to a new local level, pricking the major 0.8567 resistance level, but eventually closing deep under it. The low close at the end of the trading day had left a long tail creating the bearish key reversal pattern, signaling of a possible trend reversal.
A light negative deviation in the MACD indicator supports the expectations for a beginning of a downwards movement towards the support area that had succeeded in braking the pair in the previous two lows, around the 0.8370 level – our goal on the sell position.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Fundamental Analysis, December 29, 2010
Asian trading continue this morning on a mixed trend as well, with a tendency for index declines, with the Tokyo stock exchange having dropped 0.5%, the Hong Kong exchange having dropped 0.8%, the Taiwan exchange having dived by 1.3%, whereas the Seoul exchange climbed by 0.8%. In the Asian macroeconomic sphere, the Tokyo Ministry of Commerce announced yesterday that industrial production in Japan had climbed by 1% in November, while the Japanese consumer price index had dropped at an annualized rate of 0.5%, as predicted by analysts.
In the American macroeconomic sphere, the consumer confidence index was published yesterday in the United States, recording an unexpected decline in December due to concerns over the state of the labor market. The index had declined to a level of 52.5 points in December, despite economists' predictions that it would climb to a level of 56.9. The consumer expectations index dropped to a level of 71.9 in December, as compared to a level of 73.6 in November.
Furthermore in the macroeconomic sphere, disappointing data had been published in the United States real estate market. The Case-Shiller home price index for the 20 largest cities in the United States has shown that the home prices in these cities had declined in October at a sharper rate than expected, another sign that the United States labor market is still slow to recover.
In Europe, the central statistics bureau in France had reported that the country's GDP grew slower than expected in the third quarter. The French economy grew by 0.3% in the third quarter, as compared to a 0.4% growth in the past month. The trade in Europe's stock markets had locked on a mixed trend yesterday, with the Frankfurt stock exchange having grown 0.02%, the Paris exchange having declined by 0.1%, and the Madrid exchange having climbed by 0.1%.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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The EUR/USD wave analysis for December 29, 2010
Yesterday’s quite volatile EUR/USD trading allowed the price to drop from yesterday’s highs to a level below the 31 figure. Thus, the euro has still been within the horizontal corridor, that currently has signs of triangular shape. If so, yesterday’s maximum 1.3278 can be apex of this triangle, or its part. In this case, after the d wave is completed we can expect a new turn of euro growth in the direction of the levels located near the 32 figure.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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The USD/JPY wave analysis for December 29, 2010
The USD/JPY pair collapse and testing of correction level 61.8%, calculated according to the November-December uptrend, supposes that the 3rd (or c) wave has formed within the downside section after December 15. As a result, the price might start advancing in favor of the dollar either from current levels, or after another attempt to test the 81.85 level.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for December 29, 2010
4-hour timeframe
Overview:
Euro has been demonstrating uncertain holiday movement, thus it is recommended to refrain from trading. The sell signal has been cancelled, instead a new buy signal with target level 1.3397 has been formed. The formed signal already became stronger and weakened back. In general the Ishimoku and the Bollinger Bands are indicating that highly volatile sideways movement has begun, which is extremely dangerous for trading. The Chinkou Span fixed above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and shows bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show sideways movement, the lines are not diverging and directed sideways. The MACD is descending, thus pointing to the current downside movement.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is not recommended to trade until the pair stabilizes or until the beginning of trend movement, which is to be indicated by the Bollinger Bands.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
Senior Member
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, December 30, 2010
The GBP/JPY is moving within corrective subwave B (colored red in the chart) of wave 5 (colored magenta) of medium term downtrend. The targets of the corrective upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 127.99-126.09 and 128.54-126.09.
Resistances:
- 126.82 = .382 retracement
- 127.03-04 = confluence area of .382 and .50 retracements
- 127.26-32 = confluence area of .618 and .50 retracements
- 127.60 = .618 ret
If the downtrend continues and the price breaks below 126.09 the nearest supports will be Fibonacci expansions off 135.03-126.43-134.19, 134.19-129.33-133.03, 133.03-130.75-131.61 (waves 1-2), 131.61-127.43-128.54 (waves 3-4).
Supports:
- 125.96 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 125.64-59 = confluence area of super expanded objective point (SXOP) and objective point (OP)
- 125.17 = XOP
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down but current wave up is corrective it's preferable to use overbought readings of the Detrended Oscillator and a Fib resistance to consider shorts. The overbought area is 25-35 pips away from the current price. So 126.82 and 127.03-04 are the levels to watch for topping signals to enter short positions.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Senior Member
USD/CAD technical analysis for December 30, 2010
Support levels: 0.9980, 0.9930, 0.9820
Resistance levels: 1.0212, 1.0290, 1.0380
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is testing the support level near 0.9980-1.0000 again. Most of 2010 this level demonstrated substantial demand since Canadian companies tend to buy dollars for lower price. As mentioned before, the breakout of support level at 0.99880 will allow this pair to reach 0.9930.
Nevertheless, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0212 resistance level, this will lead to upside motion with the target to 1.0290. Further breakout of 1.0380 will denote the end of a rollback from 1.0680 and that further advance should be expected. Moreover, the breakthrough of 1.0380 will point to the formation of “Triple Bottom”.
In the midterm the currency pair will probably remain within the limits of its wide range between 1.0000 and 1.0750-1.0850. Nonetheless, in case the reversal takes place, then the breakout of 1.0680 will confirm that the consolidation ended and that the downtrend with 1.3063 is broken through. In this case it is expected that the USD/CAD will move upside to the Fibonacci correction level 38.2 from 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 with the next target to the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 at 1.1866.
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Senior Member
USD/CHF candlestick analysis for December 30, 2010
The USD/CHF currency pair has been refreshing all-time highs amid low trading volumes. The viewpoint on the currency pair is still bearish. The breakout of the support level 0.9500 targeted the USD/CHF pair to 0.9400 with 0.9350 as the next traget.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/CHF has formed the combination of candlesticks Falling Three Methods which indicates the downside movement.
This combination of candlesticks shows that the USD/CHF was increasing during a couple of weeks, but the rebound took place after the USD/CHF failed to break out the level of 1.0066. This means that the bulls did not manage to solidify here and the bears started increasing their influence. The downside movement is supported by the fact that the currency pair broke through the line of the uptrend.
A breakthrough of support level of 0.9850 confirms this point of view.
It is recommended to place the stop-orders slightly above 0.9669 as the breakout of this level will target the currency pair to 0.9850.
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the prevailing trend is up it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero level to consider long positions. The zero level is just within some 5 pips away from the current price, the oversold area is 15-20 pips away from the current price - and corresponds to 1.0089 support.
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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